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Starting point in Mafia
There is a crucial moment in the game, when you need to find something to rely on to make an important decision in the final vote. To facilitate a choice, you need to find a starting point. It can be an event or a speech that has formed your opinion and has led to your decision.
Is it an indication of a lie, or is it just a habit of a particular person, when a player touches his nose during the speech? Finding a starting point will help to avoid such mistakes. In the TV-series called "Lie to me", the main character, Dr. Laitman, reads facial expressions and gestures to determine if a person in front of him is lying. There is one episode about 19 years old paralyzed person. Lightman asks him how old is he, and of course, he already knows the answer to this question. What he really wants to understand is what kind of reaction this person has when telling the truth. When answering the question, the person had his pupils widened, which was the starting point in the continuation of the conversation on more serious topics. In subsequent questions, Lightman already has known what reactions correspond to the truth, and what indicates that the person is lying.
Of course, it is quite difficult to find a starting point. Nevertheless, it is better to find a wrong one and even to disagree with other players than to vote randomly, for no reason at all. The same action can be interpreted differently, and it is hard to understand whether it is an indication of a lie or not. However, eventually you will learn how to read it properly. This model of behavior teaches you to analyze and justify your decisions, saves you from a meaningless game and helps you to act consciously.
A decision about whether a certain player is the Mafia can be a starting point too. For example, if you think that the Sheriff is a player number 1, then you can distribute other players by teams, depending on how they act towards the Sheriff.
You can also try to understand which one of the eliminated players had a black card, and guess several variants of the Mafia based on this. At this crucial moment, you evaluate who plays with whom, and for whom you need to vote. Think about all possible options, do not stick only with opinion, and be open to new information. Blind confidence puts the block on your thinking, therefore the decisions you make often lead to mistakes and then to a defeat.
Even after making a decision, pay attention to the moment of voting. Evaluate how your suspect votes, and whether his arguments has changed during the game. Such observations combined with your good memory help to determine if the starting point you have chosen is correct. When you realize all your conclusions are wrong, you can change it in the next round.
To sum up, you need to choose a starting point in the game, depending on the reactions of others and your vision on the possible Blacks. It is better to make a decision for whom to vote only before the vote itself. Listen carefully to the participants' speeches, free your mind for new opinions, and do not get stick only to one idea.