Guessing in Mafia

Guessing in Mafia is a point when there are three or four participants left at the table. This is a culmination of the game with nerves and emotions going off scale. The game, which involves a guessing stage, can hardly be called boring. How to behave and make the right choice during this phase?

Each Citizen must know the rule of "simultaneously withdrawing two players". When there are four participants left, it is clear that among them only one refers to the Mafia. Why, then, it is necessary to eliminate two people at once? Because in this situation the withdrawal of one Red player automatically leads to the defeat of the Citizens. There will be three participants left, then during the night scene the Mafia will kill one more Red player, therefore there will be only two Citizens remained and the Mafia wins. However, the withdrawal of two players at once would help to avoid such an unfortunate outcome.

Also, this tactic is quite useful when none of the players remaining at the table is a proven Citizen. To guess correctly, choose a player who among all of them looks the most Red, try to convince this person to cooperate with you, so together you can find out who are the other two Citizens. Often beginners make mistakes in such a stressful situation refusing to vote. In this case, the Blacks gain an advantage, stay in the game and win.  

For instance, participants number 1, 2, 3 are the Citizens, and number 4 is the Mafia. Players 1 and 3 vote for the 4th player, and players 2 and 4 vote for the 3rd player. It turns to be a shoot-out. According to the rule of "simultaneously withdrawing two players", both participants of this shootout should be eliminated, even if you are one of them. It will be more profitable for the Red team.

Sometimes it happens that at the end of the game, a Citizen makes a mistake, and the whole team blames this player for losing. Nevertheless, it is not fair! The result of the game always depends on the whole team. The fact that the game has reached a guessing stage shows that the Mafia has played very well, and there is nothing to be ashamed of if you did not guess the Blacks correctly.

During the final round, listen to all speeches carefully trying to correlate all the testimony with the progress of the game. For example, remember who was with whom in cooperation in the first round, how the dynamics of the game has changed after revealing of the Sheriff.

If you, being a Red player, is under suspicion, choose one of these two tactics: defense or attack. If you definitely know who is the Mafia, convince the second Citizen to support you during the next voting, and honestly tell about your tactics during the whole game, so the Red player can understand the logic of your actions. Do not waste time on confronting the Mafia, it is more important for you to prove that you are the Red than showing who is the Black.

If you do not quite understand who the second remaining Citizen is at the table, it is better to attack the Mafia than trying to guess who is the Red. To confront the Mafia properly you need to emphasize all the mistakes this player has made. If you seem trustworthy and logical enough, the second Citizen will reach you out so you can team up and vote together.  

If you are the Mafia, remaining on the guessing phase, then the best tactic for you is to turn the Citizens against each other. Some experienced Blacks prefer to "kill" a player who is the most obvious Red. It makes the final round more difficult for the Blacks and the victory seems more beautiful. Of course, it is optional, and fits only for the training than for real tournaments.

The order in which players speak during the guessing is extremely important. If you are the one who gives the final talk, you already can predict all the votes, see what works for you better and act on it. At this moment, everything can change with one vote, and it is important for you not to miss it.

If you as a Citizen is still in the game, then, most likely, during the night scenes you were guessing the Black players correctly. Apply this logic when guessing other Reds. However, be careful, because sometimes the Mafia vote with the Red team to create an alibi and in the hope that the Sheriff will not check them. If during the final round, such a player wins, do not blame yourself. It is an opportunity to learn and to appreciate this risky move.

To conclude, the guessing stage is extremely important and requires extra attention. Trying different tactics, following the common sense and remembering that you are a part of a team help you to be more reasonable and make the right choice, which affects the outcome of the whole game. Good luck!